How Election 2008 Will Go Down

In exactly six months, all the dust from the 2008 Presidential election will have just settled and we’ll know whether our next President is a John, a Barack, or a Hillary.

Lately, assuming Obama does win the democratic nomination, I’ve been trying to figure out how he’d beat McCain.

This is how I figure: Obama will win all the states that Kerry won (with the exception of New Hampshire) plus Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and one more. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Obama can win this election without Ohio.

First things first, let’s figure out what states Obama is going to win for sure: Illinois (his home state), Hawaii (his other home state), Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, Vermont, New York, Washington DC, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. Total: 202 Electoral College votes (270 needed to win).

The “probably will win” states are: Pennsylvania (21), New Jersey (15), Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (7). Recent polls have Obama leading McCain (in Obama v. McCain) in these states. 53 more electoral college votes for a total of 255

Next up: New Mexico (5), and Nevada (5). Recall that Bush 2004 barely won New Mexico (0.79%) and Nevada (2.59%). So the Democrats have a chance. If New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson becomes the VEEP candidate, then NM is a shoe in (however as much I’d love to see an Obama-Richardson ticket, I don’t think Richardson is needed to win New Mexico). And the every increasingly liberal Nevada will probably swing blue this time. Running total: 265 But even with these two states, the Punahou graduate is still 5 vote short of the necessary 270 to win.

And that’s where the fun begins. Recent polls show McCain over Obama in swing states Ohio and Florida, so I’ll just give those to the guy with the Cougar wife.

So what’s left? Colorado. Yup, I say that Colorado must go blue for Obama to win. Yes, Colorado hasn’t gone Democrat since 1992, but recent polls show Obama with a slight lead in the state that cheers for the Broncos and the Rockies.

So let’s recap: Obama needs to win: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Iowa—which he seems like he will. He then needs to pull wins out of Colorado (likely) and eek out wins in Nevada and New Mexico.

And that’s how the election will be won.